Fred Thompson?

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Conventional wisdom is if Fred Thompson enters the GOP presidential primary the candidates that will feel pain in the polls are Romney and the second tier crowd. The reasoning goes like this: The only reason anyone supports Romney is because his campaign seems to entirely consist of running through a laundry list of stereotypically conservative positions and proclaiming his staunch support of those positions regardless of his past history. Thompson, then, would represent a viable conventionally conservative alternative to Romney. He would also be attractive to those voters giving consideration to the likes of Hunter, Huckabee, Newt, and Tancredo.

This seems right to me. But I wonder. I enthusiastically support Mayor Giuliani primarily because of his record as the executive in charge of New York City. He led that city out of some pretty awful days, and did it from the belly of the MSM beast.

Do many support Giuliani, though, simply because of name recognition? This notion is what supports the contention that Giuliani’s current poll numbers represent a ceiling that will inevitably erode. Would Fred, who has been talking to people in their living rooms as a stern but politically vague DA seriously eat into that part of Rudy’s support?

This observer is not sure, but feels the base of Mayor Giuliani’s support is not as shallow as is presumed by the pundits. Perhaps there is a subtle bias here being displayed by both the MSM and the conservative punditocracy: “Those voters in the sticks aren’t terribly bright. They don’t know the real Giuliani, and they will flock to a TV personality the same way they flocked to Arnie.” I think that analysis is wrong, and assumes the worst of the electorate.

Thus I say “Come on in, Fred!” McCain is imploding, Fred would Balkanize the Romney support, and Rudy wins the nomination.

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One Response to “Fred Thompson?”

  1. WA for Rudy Says:

    There’s an interesting interview over at race42008 by Kavon Nikrad with one of Rudy’s senior communications guys.

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