Troubling Poll From New Hampshire

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I’ll give the good with the bad.  This recent New Hampshire poll indicates raising a cartload of cash in California and Utah canindeed have an effect on voters.  Rudy is THIRD in this Zogby poll of Granite State voters.  I’ve said all along getting agitated over polling this early is bad for one’s serenity– even when the polls are positive– but I’m sure Team Giuliani furrowed some eyebrows over this one.

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6 Responses to “Troubling Poll From New Hampshire”

  1. Palin for VP! Says:

    Don’t get too worked up. First off – Zogby does not have the greatest reputation in the polling business. Second – if there is one primary you DON’T want to win, it’s New Hampshire. Winning that primary always seems to be a death knell for for a presidential campaign (Pat Buchanan, John McCain, Paul Tsongas, the list goes on and on)

  2. WA for Rudy Says:

    Do you think this might be a reaction in the Northeast to Romeny’s strong fundraising numbers?

  3. Luther C. Hardy Says:

    I don’t see this as a reaction to anything. This poll actually coorroborates one of the core-truisms of political polls: Zogby is always an out-lier, usually polling well to the “left”. In the recent CNN-WMUR New Hampshire Poll, for example, Rudy was tied with McCain at 29%, with Romney 12 points back at 17%.

    In my view, the only polling numbers that matter at all at this stage of the game are the RealClearPolitics average of all polls, whcih this morning shows McCain leading Rudy by a scant 2.7% in New Hampshire, with Romney in a distinct third place. Even here, as one would expect, Zogby is the out-lier, showing McCain with his highest lead by a noteworthy margin voer all the other polls.

  4. Karlub - PA RudyBlogger Says:

    Luther:

    I pretty much agree with everything you said, although I think it is worth pointing out Zogby hasn’t *always* been this way. It seems to have happened what, six or eight years ago or something? If anyone has an explanation for what happened I would love to hear it.

    Also, I would be careful saying a Zogby poll skewing to the “left” would hurt Giuliani. Many people would say Giuliani is– conventionally speaking, and wrongly– the most left-leaning GOP candidate.

    Cheers, Karlub – PA Rudyblogger

  5. Luther C. Hardy Says:

    Dear Karlub:

    Thank you for responding. If “two weeks is an eternity in politics”, then wouldn’t “six or eight years” count as “always”? Seriously, I have no explanation as to why Zogby is an outlier, but I do believe this has been the case longer than six or eight years, though I am not certain.

    As for Zogby skewing to the “left”, this has been my clear impression for a “long time” though I have never sought actually to “quantify” same. Actually, I think this is the very reason that this Zogby poll shows Rudy doing worse in New Hampshire, vis-à-vis John McCain, than do other polls.

    As you say, many people would say that Rudy is the most left-leaning GOP candidate, albeit wrongly so. This is principally the mainstream media’s take on the matter. It certainly isn’t George Will’s take, for example! Moreover, I have noticed, in the past several weeks to several months, a true phenomenon: the vast majority of “talking heads”, Political Strategists, Journalists, and Pundits who portray Rudy as “Liberal”, indeed “too Liberal” to get the Republican nomination, are themselves Liberals and/or Democrats! My theory on this is that they subconsciously fear Rudy because they believe he is the only one among the top GOP candidates will definitely defeat Hillary, or anyone else, in the general election. Thus, saying that “Rudy is too Liberal” is a projection of this fear on to the GOP in the hope that the party will not nominate Rudy.

    The people “on the ground” in the GOP, however, do not see it this way. The internals of virtually every poll showing Rudy in the lead show that his support comes from across the board, and particularly from such polling sub-sets as self-described “conservatives” and “White Born-Again Evangelicals”. Indeed, influential “conservative” church leaders such as Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson have not “taken off” on Rudy in a long time, and others such as such as James Dobson and Richard Land have almost pointedly declined to lambaste Rudy in instances where they have lambasted John McCain. Even Kate O’Bierne and Pat Buchanan have “backed off” Rudy’s case in their recent cable-news talk show appearances, and Maggie Gallagher and Noemie Emery have written positively about a social-conservative “deal” with Rudy.

    Indeed, my very unscientific survey of the polls and the blogosphere tells me that the only stripe of conservative voters who are significantly opposed to Rudy are “one-issue voters” on the issue of abortion. If one couples that dynamic with the fact that virtually every poll shows that abortion is way down most voters list of important issues for 2008, one begins to understand Rudy’s astronomical poll numbers despite the Liberal Mainstream Media telling us that Rudy is “too Liberal” for the GOP.

    I think this disconnect is explained largely by the more-or-less standard disdain and underestimation by the Media for people of faith and social conservatives on the one hand, and on the other hand the actual maturity and perception of those people of faith and social conservatives. In other words, it is the Media and other Liberals themselves who pronounce Rudy to be a Liberal because their skewed version of Conservative voters judges them by the social issues alone, and expects them all to be determined one-issue voters on those social issues. Moreover, the Media does not take sufficiently into consideration that these conservative voters are mature and perceptive enough to base their own decision of who is a conservative and who they should vote for on other issues as well.

    Now, to understand why a poll that “skews to the Left” would show Rudy doing worse in New Hampshire, take into consideration these things: (1) the phenomenon I describe above; (2) the palpable dislike and distrust of Conservatives for John McCain; (3) that the Libertarian-oriented brand of conservatism prevalent in the Granite State is even more open to Rudy that social-issue conservatism; (4) the fact that, as New Hampshiremen themselves will tell you, most of McCain’s New-Hampshire-style conservative support in the 200 Primary has left him, because of his own actions since then such as CFR, voting against the Bush tax-cuts, the Gang of 14, etc., etc.

    En somme, when the facts are analyzed, and the Media hype is penetrated, Rudy would be expected to do well among Conservatives in New Hampshire, and McCain’s support would be expected to come from the middle to the Left of the GOP, as well as from moderate to liberal leaning Independents. Thus a poll in New Hampshire that “skews to the Left, as does Zogby, would be expected to show McCain doing better vis-à-vis Rudy that the other polls.

    Cheers, Luther

  6. karlub - PA RudyBlogger Says:

    I think I can say “Ditto” to Luther on that one without hardly any reservations at all.

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