National vs. Early State Primary Polls


It has been observed elsewhere that Team Giuliani may perhaps be eschewing Iowa and New Hampshire for the bigger states who hold primaries soon afterwards:  California, Texas, Florida, Michigan…and a little prize called New York.

While it certainly would be a mistake to ignore the traditional early primary states entirely, it seems to me this is a wise strategy on the part of Team Giuliani.  Remember, New Hampshire’s delegates have gone in the past to powerhouses like Buchanan and McCain.

I mention this as there have been a few polls showing Romney opening up a lead in Iowa and New Hampshire.  I suppose this is a good thing for his campaign– after all, one would rather win those states than not– but his new strength in those states is not matched by any national movement.  Romney stills polls in the single digits nationally, coming in behind Hizzoner, McCain, Thompson, and even Newt every once in a while.

Personally, it seems to me if Team Romney is hoping victories in Iowa and New Hampshire build momentum for the new super-Tuesday on Feb. 5, they will be dissappointed.  If Giuliani can’t win California and New York, he’s a goner anyway.  And if he does, as he should, New Hampshire and Iowa don’t matter even a little bit.

PS:  If I have anything to do with it, Pennsylvania will have its primary on Feb. 5 as well, and that’s a good thing for Team Giuliani as well.


2 Responses to “National vs. Early State Primary Polls”

  1. Ridge/McCain Say "Shut Up & Do What I Say" « PA For Hizzoner, Rudy Giuliani Says:

    […] make note here of why the polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina will not matter much for Team […]

  2. Romney on the Burn « Bloggers for Rudy Says:

    […] Romney on the Burn Mitt’s strong 1Q07 are well known.  But now he’s dipping into his own cash again to fund his campaign.  So it seems he’s burning money in a way unmatched by his opponents.  This seems to have bought him decent polling in New Hampshire and Iowa, but not so much everywhere else.  That strategy is so last millenium. […]

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