National Poll Meta-Analysis


Sorry for the lengthy absence.  I was sunning myself on Florida’s Gulph coast.

During my hiatus I see there’s a whole rash of national polls out.  Some are bad for the GOP generally, like the Gallup poll here showing all potential GOP presidential candidates losing to all potential Dem. candidates.

One GOP primary poll from Rasmussen shows Hizzoner losing to Fred Thompson, link here, which likely caused some raised eyebrows over at Team Giuliani.  As this poll also shows McCain ascending to second place in the teeth of all the immigration bill hullabaloo, I am wagering at this point this poll is an outlier.

Perhaps most interestingly, though, is this poll from Gallup covering each party’s primary.  It shows Giuliani ahead of Thompson, although with a lead narrower than that to which he has become accustomed.  Most interesting– HT to K-Lo at NRO for noticing this– Giuliani’s lead surprisingly increases when it is narrowed down to only him and Thompson.  This seems to suggest Thompson is not really siphoning Giuliani supporters, but supporters of other candidates.

I guess the only thing we can make of all this, for certain, is that a Giuliani candidacy for the general election is not a slam dunk.  Of course, who ever thought it would be?  I would also posit that a murky progress report of the Iraq troop surge seems to be hurting all GOP candidates in potential general election matchups as well.

The advice from this humble blogger to the team in NYC?  Start detailing what it means, exactly, when Giuliani exhorts us to “remain on offense” in the War on Terror.  Then emphasize how that would be different from the Bush Doctrine.


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