Rudy IA & NH Radio

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Team Giuliani has started running radio ads in New Hampshire and Iowa, so we will get to see if Mitt Romney’s strong showing in polls in those states is merely a reflection of the fact that he spends infinitely more money there on media than any other candidate.

Some are saying something along the lines of this:  “Aha!  Now that McCain is looking like he’s going to tank Giuliani realizes he can’t write off those states anymore since he’ll have one less candidate to fracture the electorate.”

That may be true.  The conventional wisdom has always been wrong when it comes to Hizzoner’s campaign, though.  So I wonder if the situation is more like this:  Team Giuliani had confirmed over the last week that he is very strong in SC and FL, as I note in the post below.  They are very confident with those leads, as in FL he is up by double digits, and in SC McCain is his closest competition, with Romney down at 4%.  So while they would have been happy to concede IA and NH, now they feel they have a little room to manuver.  So they will invest some time and money IA and NH, forcing other candidates to crop-dust shekels there with desperate abandon, hence depleting their resources for later.

This could, in fact, be exactly what they plan for a for the general election:  Giuliani is the only GOP candidate that can force a Democrat candidate to spend any significant money in large, expensive states like CA and NY.  While NH and IA are not large, they are expensive in a primary.  Those folks practically expect every candidate to knock on their door and sit down for dinner.  If the rest of the GOP has to spend time working diners in IA and doing four hour interviews with the Manchester Union Leader to just protect narrow advantages there, they will find themselves 100 delegates behind Giuliani without much money to spend on super-duper media windfall Tuesday.

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