Archive for September, 2007

Re: New Hampshire Turns to Rudy

September 27, 2007

You beat me to it, Ohio.  Here I was reading some blogs before calling Australia for work, and figured I’d get the jump on all of you.

Of course, this is entirely expected.  Rudy actually started investing in the Granite State’s primary a month or so ago, and now Mitt only has outspent team Giuliani by a factor of 10 rather than 100.

May I also gleefully point out that NH is awfully close to the Commonwealth Romney governed?  Mitt’s campaign has always said “The more people learn about Romney, the more they like him.”  Well, that certainly doesn’t appear to be the case in NH.

New Hampshire Turns to Rudy

September 27, 2007

Some good news from the Granite State – Rudy has erased Mitt’s 14-point lead among likely Republican primary voters…http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/09/26/nh.gop.poll/index.html

Besides the headline, this was also nice: “A plurality see Giuliani as the most likeable and the most electable Republican in the field…”

Romney Vexes Me

September 24, 2007

The other day the Mittster said something along the lines of “a necessary ingredient” for a GOP candidate to beat Ms. Clinton is to be able to “bring all their family together as I have to get on the campaign trail.”

First, the statement is incoherent on its face.  It just doesn’t make any logical sense.

Second, one finds it hard to imagine anyone would find it persuasive.  Either he really thinks that, which paints him as some sort of Stepford automaton.  Or it could mean he thinks GOP voters are unable to discern the statement’s dimwittery, which means he’s about as patronizing as a politician can get.

I favor the latter interpretation.  He has already shown himself to be the dirtiest GOP candidate out there with his ethically challenged slanderous anti-Thompson web site.  He has also already shown himself to be arrogant and patronizing with his transparent defense against accusations that his campaign had something to do with that site.

Seriously, about all this guy has going for him are appearances of rectitude and a nice haircut.  Does he really think that will generate a cloaking device preventing people from seeing how venal he is?

Ohio is for Rudy…

September 20, 2007

Good news from my former home… http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/ohio_poll_091907.htm

Enough Said…

September 19, 2007

According to a new Fox New/Opinion Dynamics poll:

If the United States were to get hit with another terrorist attack, would you feel more comfortable with Hillary Clinton or Rudy Giuliani as president?

Rudy Giuliani 50%
Hillary 36%

This poll was done September 11-12 among 900 registered voters, 396 Democrats and 297 Republicans. The 50 percent of Americans who trusted Giuliani more included 28 percent of Democrats and an overwhelming 80 percent of Republicans. Independents split in Giuliani’s favor 47 percent to Clinton’s 28 percent.

A Few Notes re. Advertising, MoveOn, and the NYT

September 14, 2007

There has been some suspicion in the blogosphere about the rate MoveOn paid for that loathsome ad they placed Monday with the NYT calling Petraeus a treasonous liar.  They apparently received a huge discount, and people think the Times clearly gave it to them because they’re sympathetic to MoveOn.

The Times counters that this was sort of a standard discount deal for a non-profit, black and white “standby” ad.  What they mean by standby is “We have this space we tried to sell to someone who will pay full price, but can’t.  So since things are already laid out such that this space exists, we’ll sell it to you on extraordinarily short notice for a song.”

I’ve worked in advertising, and I think the blogosphere is suspicious for the wrong reasons, and the Times is fibbing.  Thing is, a publication that is desperate to sell something to *anybody* will slash their rates so often that the published open rate is pretty much a fiction, except for people with lots of money willing to pay it so that they are consistently treated very well when it comes to placement and potential “value added”, which means free stuff.

My theory is the rate MoveOn paid is really an indicator of how desperate the Times is to sell ad space.  Their circulation is plummeting, and advertisers are sprinting as fast as they can from newspaper investment generally.  Conspiracy theorists counter that the timing of the MoveOn ad indicates they knew all along when the ad would appear, so standby or remnant pricing can’t be the reason.  I counter what this really means is the Times is so awash in standby opportunities that MoveOn could be reasonably sure their insertion would appear at about the right time.

So the Giuliani campaign is right to call out the Times on this, demanding similar pricing for a one-off insertion, butI bet they aren’t getting that much of a deal.

The real takeaway is still good, though:  The New York Times is likely to discount heavily for anyone because their business is sucking wind.

And now you also know why I am so thrilled I no longer flog paper advertising, making money mostly off the ignorant and the credulous.

Team Rudy Response To MoveOn in NYT

September 14, 2007

And Giuliani Continues to Raise Boatloads of Cash

September 13, 2007

Hizzoner’s commanding advantage in the polls– mentioned below– is particularly astonishing given the fact that in those early states where Giuliani is not leading, he is second to Mitt.  And Mitt has spent exponentially more money.

Nevertheless, Giuliani is continuing to grow his campaign’s financial resources.  Just recently, for example, he raised $350k in Georgia in only three days.  Isn’t that supposed to be Fred Dalton Thompson’s turf?

Team Giuliani his preparing to open the cash spigots in early primary states.  Expect the opposition to start slinging mud at about the same time.

As we’ve already seen, Romney for one knows how to sling mud.  He may, in fact, be the dirtiest of the bunch.  It will be interesting to see how that affects the saintly image he’s gone to such great lengths to cultivate.  Of course, he’s a venture capitalist.  Anyone who’s ever worked with a VC can tell you how well saintly halos fit on one of those cats…

Rudy leads in major early primary states

September 12, 2007

Rudy continues to lead in some of the top states that culminate in the “Super Tuesday” primary this February.  Giuliani currently leads his GOP primary rivals in California, New York, New Jersey, Florida, Illinois, Connecticut, Maine, and has now surpassed his rivals to take the lead in Colorado, Oklahoma, Missouri, and the all-important early primary state of South Carolina.  Based on the most recent polling data, Rudy would receive 696 out of 1300 delegates in states that have early primaries and caucuses extending to February 5th.

Romney Goes Way Dirty Way Fast

September 12, 2007

It’s one thing for idiot bloggers like me– who are not campaign operatives– to go negative.  It’s what we do.  We’re not professionals, and spitting venom is way easier than analysis.  Also, we bloggers are mostly anonymous, and hence don’t have to worry about our dignity.

It is quite another for a campaign to go dirty.  And boy oh boy, Mitt Romny’s campaign just went about as dirty as you can go.

His consultants hosted– and one presumes posted– the content over at www.phonyfred.org.  WaPo coverage here.  This site did classy and Christian things like call Fred a moron and playboy.

I find this entirely consistent with what I think I might know about Mitt Romney: Pretend to be pure as glacial meltwater, and about as interesting.  Do everything humanly possible to advance your ambition.  Feign shock and ingnorance when someone accuses you of malfeasance.  Reminds me of Hillary Clinton’s tactics.

This is also pretty stupid, politically, which I guess suprises me.  It let’s people like me link to anti-Fred content while protesting the craven and officious babbittry of Mitt Romney.