Author Archive

Rudy Proudly Not Endorsed

January 28, 2008

Rudy should have been openly ‘distinguishing’ himself from Senator McCain before today.  He had every right to.

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Fred’s Departure Could Help Rudy

January 22, 2008

Fred Thompson bowed out today, a week before the Florida primary.  We’ve seen signs in Florida of a sharpened race, a race that appeared to be between three men – Rudy, Romney, and McCain.

Conspicuously absent from that list is Mike Huckabee, still considered by many to be a force, if not a contender, in the GOP race.  Huckabee is also a man that shared many traits with Thompson, and for that reason, some feel that Thompson’s departure will benefit the man from Hope (see here, for example).

Going on that assumption, Mike Huckabee is once again a contender in the Sunshine State.  And how exactly is that good for the Mayor?  It seems a safe assumption that there isn’t much cross-over between the Thompson camp or the Huckabee camp and the Giuliani camp – that is, folks left out in the cold by Fred’s departure aren’t likely to flock to Rudy, and Giuliani backers aren’t likely to be swayed by a rising Huckabee.  So Rudy’s numbers probably won’t change much.

Those who could be swayed by a rising Huckabee, it seems to me, are social conservatives who like Huckabee but have felt that McCain is a safer bet.  Were Huckabee to start moving in the right direction, if it seemed like he might have a shot, those on-the-fencers currently standing by the Senator might jump ship for Huckabee.  Recall from an earlier post (“Florida Polling”) that of the three current front-runners, McCain’s supporters were the least committed, with 22% going so far as to say that they very well could change their minds.

The final piece of this puzzle is that with Huckabee rising at McCain’s expense, the net effect is a McCain-Huckabee battle over a subsection of the GOP primary voters which ends up in a stalemate.  That is, they more or less split a small subset of the votes needed to carry Florida next Tuesday.  With the attention of McCain diverted, Huckabee working simply for a solid showing, and the two splitting a group of voters, the door is open for Rudy (appealing to a rather different constituency) to claim a strong plurality on the 29th.

This is admittedly very hypothetical and conclusory.  And much could happen that would totally change the calculus – Fred could endorse (gasp) McCain.  But barring some such major event, the scenario painted above is not implausible.  The general ideas – a rising Huckabee collides with an unsteady McCain, taking both out of contention and leaving Rudy standing on top of the pile – seem reasonable enough.  Any thoughts?

Florida Polling: Rudy Does Better, Earns Florida’s Loyalty

January 21, 2008

Rudy Giuliani is beating John McCain in Florida.

A Rasmussen poll out today has Romney at 25%, McCain at 20%, and Rudy at 19%.  Yes, I know that 20 is more than 19.  I also know that statistically, this is a tie.  And the kicker is 67% of Rudy’s supporters are “certain” they will vote for him.  Only 55% of Romney’s are certain, and a meager 48% of McCain’s supporters are certain they will vote for the Senator.  (read more here)

And get this: 22% of those who supported McCain in the poll say there is a good chance they could change their mind.

It turns out that Floridians appreciate the attention Rudy has given them and are rewarding him with their loyalty.

With a week to go, it goes without saying that Florida is entirely up for grabs.  But Rudy has here what the others don’t – a loyal base, a solid foundation.

Another Update: Rudy Does Your Taxes

January 18, 2008

Another day, another ad touting Rudy’s previous and promised tax cuts…

Apparently even Mitt Romney thinks Rudy’s a great tax cutter.

Go Rudy.  Win Florida.

Michigan GOP Primary: Rudy is the Real Winner

January 16, 2008

Michigan Republicans came through big time for Mitt Romney this evening.  They also handed Rudy Giuliani a much-needed gift.

Since reclaiming his spot as the media’s favorite Republican (no wonder – check here and here), John McCain has been on quite a roll.  Picking up a win in New Hampshire and rising in polls nationwide and in key states like Florida, the McTrain seemed ready to flatten the rest of the GOP field.

Rudy has held his own in the Sunshine State, but the results from Michigan could not have been better for the Mayor.  From media coverage, it seemed that the GOP was nearly ready to hand the reins to Senator McCain.  A win in Michigan would have added substantial force to this notion, and may well have proved determinative in this race.  But the media reports were wrong.  And the polls were wrong.  Again.

Republicans are looking for a leader.  Between January 29th and February 5th, they will find their leader in Rudy Giuliani.

Update: Rudy Does Your Taxes

January 13, 2008

In November 2004, an initiative banning same-sex marriage was on the ballot in Ohio.  This has been credited with drawing values voters to the polls there, where, conveniently, they could also punch the hole by George W. Bush’s name.  That seemed to work out well for the Bush campaign (read more here).

In an interview on Fox News Sunday, Rudy mentioned a tax resolution that will be on the ballot in Florida on January 29th (read more here).  Conveniently, Republican voters in Florida will also be choosing their nominee for President that day.  The Giuliani campaign has brilliantly focused their message recently on tax issues (see post below)…targeting the very voters who are expected to be out in force this January 29th.  This is, of course, just one piece of the puzzle, but as former Massachusetts Governor Paul Cellucci said in the link above, Rudy “may look like a genius on February 6th.”  So might his campaign strategists.

Rudy Does Your Taxes

January 10, 2008

After unveiling Rudy’s tax plan (read about it here, here, and here), the campaign has followed up with this ad…

These are smart moves – Rudy shows substance and gravitas while (as has astutely been written about on this blog recently) the rest of the field trains their weapons on each other.

As for the tax plan itself, smart readers will understand that spending cuts must complement Rudy’s tax cut proposals.  The good news is the budget turnaround in NYC under Mayor Giuliani ($2.3 billion inherited deficit turned into a multi-billion dollar surplus), which was achieved by cutting both taxes and spending.  This sort of fiscal responsibility is sorely needed, and Rudy will deliver.

A Little Perspective on the Iowa Caucus Results

January 4, 2008

As of 12:07am, 1/4/08:
Iowa Caucus Results:
Huckabee – 34%
Romney – 26%
Thompson – 13%
McCain – 13%
Paul – 10%
Giuliani – 4%
Hunter – 0%

1992 Iowa Caucus Results:
Tom Harkin – 76%
Paul Tsongas – 4%
*Bill Clinton – 3%
Bob Kerrey – 2%
Jerry Brown – 2%

We Will Win

January 3, 2008

Mayor Giuliani has a clear message for those that threaten the United States:

“We’re in the middle of a struggle that pits freedom versus fundamentalism, hope versus fear, democracy versus conflict.  We didn’t seek this conflict.  We didn’t start this conflict.  But we must finish it.  And we will win it.”

Rudy’s Latest Ad: “Ready”

January 3, 2008

On the eve of the Iowa caucuses, Rudy throws his best pitch…