Archive for the ‘Campaign News’ Category

Brownback to Romney: Bite Me

October 26, 2007

Well, Sam Brownback’s supporters may find the language in this title’s post a little beyond the pale.  But that’s sort of what it seems like.

Hizzoner and Sam have met, and Gov. Brownback left calling Mayor Giuliani an “excellent leader”.  At least one reporter with the Washington Post thought Brownback “[S]eemed on the verge of backing [Giuliani]”.  Link here.

The picture below is also from that piece, and while it was taken in June it does seem delicious in the current context, no?  If I were Team Giuliani I certainly wouldn’t count my chickens before they’re hatched on this one, but even if Sam decided to back the Huck or McCain, it remains a partial victory that the one candidate Sam is apparently not considering for an endorsement is Romney.

Mitt Romney’s brain: “Can’t these darn GOP voters see that I’ve fine-tuned my internal poli-software to mirror the polling of the GOP electorate circa 2005?  I wonder how large a donation I have to make to myself NOW…”


Sam Brownback Considering Giuliani Endorsement

October 25, 2007

Wouldn’t it be something if a huge social conservative with  a large organization in IA who just dropped out of the presidential race decided to support Giuliani for president?

Well, apparently it isn’t out of the question, despite what Brownback’s aides seem to think….

And Giuliani Continues to Raise Boatloads of Cash

September 13, 2007

Hizzoner’s commanding advantage in the polls– mentioned below– is particularly astonishing given the fact that in those early states where Giuliani is not leading, he is second to Mitt.  And Mitt has spent exponentially more money.

Nevertheless, Giuliani is continuing to grow his campaign’s financial resources.  Just recently, for example, he raised $350k in Georgia in only three days.  Isn’t that supposed to be Fred Dalton Thompson’s turf?

Team Giuliani his preparing to open the cash spigots in early primary states.  Expect the opposition to start slinging mud at about the same time.

As we’ve already seen, Romney for one knows how to sling mud.  He may, in fact, be the dirtiest of the bunch.  It will be interesting to see how that affects the saintly image he’s gone to such great lengths to cultivate.  Of course, he’s a venture capitalist.  Anyone who’s ever worked with a VC can tell you how well saintly halos fit on one of those cats…

Fred is In, Yawns Ensue; Rudy Wins Another Debate

September 6, 2007

Thompson announced his candidacy on Jay Leno’s program last night, apparently feeling that is a more appropriate place for him to be than an actual debate.  Thompson claimed the Leno show would be harder, anyway, than a GOP debate.  We’ll see.

By most estimatations, Giuliani did great last night at the debate.  He is handicapped now in that his performance in these debates excepting the first one has been so strong that he is judged against himself, rather than the weak compeition.  So while Hizzoner clearly won, pundits seem to think McCain did himself the most good as he most exceeded expectations.  Given how low those expectations have become, I imagine Team Giuliani is pretty happy.

Romney looked plain lame on foreign policy, getting zinged by McCain for saying the surge is “apparently” working.  I imagine team Giuliani was also happy about this, as the dueling press releases behind the scenes seems to suggest the campaign’s respective strategists are beginning to view this as a Giuliani / Romney race.

My only controversial observation thus far?  Giuliani could close this race tomorrow by annoucing Thompson as his veep.  Romney could at least keep it an open question by doing the same.

NH Manchester Union-Leader’s Pro-Rudy Editorial

August 1, 2007

Well, look at this.  As soon as other candidates [ahem, Rudy Giuliani] start dumping resources into IA and NH at even a fraction of the pace of Mitt Romney has been burning bonfires of venture capital cash, the Mittster’s lead is revealed as thin at best.

I thought it was Giuliani who was supposed to have fickle and ill-informed supporters?  MSM pundits stunned again, Bloggers for Rudy grow bored with their predictable failures.

Now, on the heels of those polls the influential Manchester Union Leader writes:

Giuliani wants to use the power of free markets to reduce health-care costs and make insurance more affordable and more widely available.

“America’s health-care system is being dragged down by decades of government-imposed mandates and wasteful, unaccountable bureaucracy,” he said. “To reform, we must empower all Americans by increasing health-care choices and affordability, while bringing accountability to the system.”

Giuliani’s health care proposal has some familiar ideas, such as expanding Health Savings Accounts, reforming medical liability laws and offering a tax credit for health insurance not purchased through an employer. Each of these sound ideas has been pushed by the Bush administration.

It also has some less familiar ones, such as bypassing state coverage mandates by allowing people to purchase basic health insurance through interstate markets.

Giuliani’s plan is innovative and, if implemented, would achieve much of what the Democrats want, but for less money and with greater individual freedom.

It should be noted that he is not the only Republican candidate touting market-based health-care reform. But he is doing so more aggressively, directly challenging the Democrats on the issue. (Mitt Romney has done this to a lesser extent.)

Other Republican candidates need to follow Giuliani’s lead and play up their market-based approach to health-care reform. Socialized medicine is a terrible idea. But it will be the only idea if its opponents don’t challenge it more aggressively.

Pundits keep saying things like “All Rudy has is 9/11”, “Giuliani’s appeal is largely based on name-recognition and will dissipate”, and “National polls are meaningless, what is really significant is that Romney leads in IA and NH, and McCain in SC.”

They’re like some of the marketing people I work with.  They keep making judgements with their guts and don’t seek out– or ignore– outright data.  All the data available to us is that Americans love Giuliani, and his positions most closely match those of the voters.  I guess mundane things like facts are irrelevant to them, and I should craft a macro that writes out “MSM wrong again.”

Don’t Let Rudy, or Romney, Duck the Debate!

July 29, 2007

If Rudy backs out of this debate, he’s going to lose a whole lot of online support. Go here for more info on saving the debate.

Giuliani’s Electability is Not Enough

July 25, 2007

Electability may excite political consultants, but it will take more than this to excite and mobilize voters and volunteers.

This entry on the Washington Post’s ‘The Trail’ blog presents mixed news for Rudy.  The poll shows, once again, Giuliani’s “sizeable lead over his three principal rivals,” but also reveals that “support for Giuliani is not deep – only a third of his supporters said they are strongly behind his candidacy.”  Then we have the oft-repeated notion that many conservatives are unsatisfied with the current crop of candidates and are waiting for a white knight – “Republicans remain less satisfied with their field of candidates…Sixty-five percent of Republicans expressed satisfaction with the GOP choices.”

This last issue is, from my vantage point, moot.  Of the three candidates out of the gates early – McCain, Romney, and Giuliani – Rudy holds a commanding lead.  Fred Thompson has, for all intents and purposes, entered the race, and still polls well behind The Mayor.  As for Newt, his poll numbers are essentially negligible.  In other words, there isn’t a candidate, declared or not, that Giuliani hasn’t trounced in the polls.

So why the shallow support for Rudy?

We are kidding ourselves if we believe that Giuliani’s electability alone can trump Hillary’s or Obama’s support (the article mentions that 70% of Hillary’s supporters strongly back her candidacy, as do 56% of Obama’s).  Volunteers – the foot soldiers in Presidential elections – need to believe in their leader.  They have to be fighting for Rudy, not just against Hillary or Obama.  And voters have to have a good reason to vote for Rudy, not just against Hillary or Obama.  As we saw with Kerry in 2004, close races are lost by candidates who rely on disdain for their opponents.

The good news is that there is no shortage of good, substantive reasons for electing Rudy.  And Rudy is second to none in meaningful, detailed plans for America’s future.  The key is drawing the nation’s attention to these points and changing the media’s shorthand for the Giuliani candidacy from ‘The Electable Republican’ to ‘The GOP’s Leader.’

Rudy IA & NH Radio

July 24, 2007

Team Giuliani has started running radio ads in New Hampshire and Iowa, so we will get to see if Mitt Romney’s strong showing in polls in those states is merely a reflection of the fact that he spends infinitely more money there on media than any other candidate.

Some are saying something along the lines of this:  “Aha!  Now that McCain is looking like he’s going to tank Giuliani realizes he can’t write off those states anymore since he’ll have one less candidate to fracture the electorate.”

That may be true.  The conventional wisdom has always been wrong when it comes to Hizzoner’s campaign, though.  So I wonder if the situation is more like this:  Team Giuliani had confirmed over the last week that he is very strong in SC and FL, as I note in the post below.  They are very confident with those leads, as in FL he is up by double digits, and in SC McCain is his closest competition, with Romney down at 4%.  So while they would have been happy to concede IA and NH, now they feel they have a little room to manuver.  So they will invest some time and money IA and NH, forcing other candidates to crop-dust shekels there with desperate abandon, hence depleting their resources for later.

This could, in fact, be exactly what they plan for a for the general election:  Giuliani is the only GOP candidate that can force a Democrat candidate to spend any significant money in large, expensive states like CA and NY.  While NH and IA are not large, they are expensive in a primary.  Those folks practically expect every candidate to knock on their door and sit down for dinner.  If the rest of the GOP has to spend time working diners in IA and doing four hour interviews with the Manchester Union Leader to just protect narrow advantages there, they will find themselves 100 delegates behind Giuliani without much money to spend on super-duper media windfall Tuesday.

The Mayor, CA, and Bill Simon

July 17, 2007

Rudy Giuliani’s old colleague at the Justice Department, Bill Simon, has been on his presidential executive committee for some time.  Today it was announced he will also chair his campaign in CA.

While some campaigns obsess over NH and IA, Team Giuliani knows they matter less than they used to.  While Bill Simon is not some sort of electoral genius when it comes to CA politics, I think it can be safely said it would be shocking if Giuliani did not win the CA GOP primary with both his federalist approach and his support from Simon, who is one of the more popular GOP politicians in the state, and is also what passes for a conservative there.

Like the Vietnam military leaders who were stilling using the WWII and Korean playbook, the other GOP candidates all seem to think building momentum in IA and NH– and maybe SC and FL– is the path to victory.  Team Giuliani knows better.  A lot of states matter, and many of them are very hospitable to the Mayor.  And it’s a losing strategy to spend too much money now in states with only a handful of convention delegates.

Rudy’s Thought of the Day: June 27th

June 28, 2007

I know we just had a ‘Thought of the Week’ but today is my birthday, so it’s ok…and in this spirit, I’ll quote the man twice…

“You have to lead from cold, hard facts, not fantasy.  If you can’t say the words, ‘Islamic terrorist,’ then you have a hard time figuring out who is our biggest enemy in this world.”

To Iran: “But here’s the bottom line: You are not going to be allowed to become a nuclear power.  No how, no way, it’s just not going to happen.”

See this article for the full story.