Archive for the ‘McCain’ Category

SC Sets Table for Giuliani in FL

January 21, 2008

OK.  I guess it was too much to hope for a Thompson win in SC.  A McCain win is almost as good, though.

The GOP electorate has been experimenting with their non-McCain options since voting has started.  Everyone has been auditioned except our man.  Hizzoner remains only two points off the lead in the most recent Quinnipiac poll in FL, though, and as the results from everything post-Florida begin to sink in, the Huckster’s numbers should surely decline.

Thus the Mayor has a very real chance of winning FL, which was the plan all along.  Of course, I don’t think anyone imagined the average GOP voter would be so eager to give McCain a pass on the summer immigration flap.  Apparently it is so.  Remember those halcyon days when we all wrote off his campaign?  Would that it were so.

Again, the “surge” strategy has been set up about as well as it could have been.  For Team Rudy, I mean, not Iraq.  A week from tomorrow, we’ll know for sure if DuHaime will be writing a book, or looking for a job running a town supervisor campaign in Long Island.

I am biased, of course, but I still expect all of us to wake up on Feb. 5 with Mayor Giuliani in possession of a delegate lead, or at least very near the lead.  Then things are going to get interesting…

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Things Breaking Rudy’s Way. Seriously.

January 9, 2008

It will only be mentioned in passing, but it looks like NH broke the way Team Rudy would want.  Just like IA.

Hizzoner probably would have liked McCain to win by more, but McCain appears to have not only won the primary, but also appears to have won among GOP voters only.  Romney was hoping to take solace in crowing about winning the GOP vote, only losing to McCain because independents opted for the aged veteran.

The fact that Clinton pulled out an unexpected victory will also distract the media, making the McCain victory apt to quickly become old news.

Huck’s IA bounce evaporated, and Thompson barely registered at all.

Finally, our man did avoid the ignominy of losing to Ron Paul.

This forces Romney and McCain to both vigorously contest MI, and Huck and Fred both into an all-in pot in SC.

So all other candidates will be otherwise disposed until FL, spending money their campaigns don’t have, while Team Rudy continues to accrue interest on the resources devoted to what they hope will be a Tsunami Tuesday blitz following a FL win.

That was always the plan.  Bit of a nail-biter, sure.  But if the national strategy is viable– which I always thought was the case– then the dominoes are setting up appropriately.

Perspective? We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Perspective!

January 4, 2008

Last night’s results, actually, were perfect for the Giuliani campaign given they elected to forgoe spending seven million dollars in an attempt to kiss up to every Iowan with a pulse.

Romney was dealt a huge defeat.  By his own campaign’s admission IA and/or NH were hugely important to them.  They spent the ethanol farm on IA, and lost.  And NH isn’t looking good.  But that man is stuffed to the gills with venture capital, so he’ll still fight on to Super Duper Tuesday.

Thompson and McCain did OK, encouraging them to stay in the race.

Ron Paul didn’t surprise anyone with a particularly impressive showing.

So it looks like last night Team Rudy got the result they needed.  There will not be any one candidate piling up victories and delegates before Florida, and Florida is where the Giuliani team has planted their flag.

So Team Rudy will get to FL, where our man still leads in all polls.  The only candidate coming on strong is the Huck.  If the Huckster can win Florida, we’re all doomed.

Rudy wins Florida, though, and then piles up some delegates from NY, NJ, DE, CA and others on Tsunami Tuesday, then the national strategy will be vindicated.  And his campaign team can then make some money on a book.

The important thing to note, though, is last night’s results were the first empirical confirmation of the national stragegy’s political viability.

Brownback to Romney: Bite Me

October 26, 2007

Well, Sam Brownback’s supporters may find the language in this title’s post a little beyond the pale.  But that’s sort of what it seems like.

Hizzoner and Sam have met, and Gov. Brownback left calling Mayor Giuliani an “excellent leader”.  At least one reporter with the Washington Post thought Brownback “[S]eemed on the verge of backing [Giuliani]”.  Link here.

The picture below is also from that piece, and while it was taken in June it does seem delicious in the current context, no?  If I were Team Giuliani I certainly wouldn’t count my chickens before they’re hatched on this one, but even if Sam decided to back the Huck or McCain, it remains a partial victory that the one candidate Sam is apparently not considering for an endorsement is Romney.

Mitt Romney’s brain: “Can’t these darn GOP voters see that I’ve fine-tuned my internal poli-software to mirror the polling of the GOP electorate circa 2005?  I wonder how large a donation I have to make to myself NOW…”

MI Debate Analysis…

October 10, 2007

…is actually something I can’t do.  The wife and I elect to NOT take cable television in our home, which thankfully kept me from watching every second of the Rockies sweep of the Phillies.  The debate is up online right now, but I haven’t watched yet.

So all I can do is relay the assessments of people who have to watch these things, as they get paid to do so.  Consensus seems to be: Thompson didn’t impress, but at least he didn’t commit any major gaffes.  So he kind of cleared a very low bar.  Giuliani remains strong in these debates, but would have been pretty average, if he hadn’t won small a small tiff with Romney over the line-item veto.  McCain continues to improve.

Romney, though, came off badly.  When his pre-installed suite of programming is functioning smoothly, people appreciate his answers as mostly right if transparently calculated.  When that software hits a bug, though, he says something like “We’ll let the lawyers decide” the direction of our foreign policy.

Worst news of the night, though?  I learned that Phil Gramm is Brownback’s economic advisor.  Damn.  I like Phil Gramm.  Thankfully, my admiration for Gramm is something of a minority fetish, and this is unlikely to put him over the top.

Finally, see this post over at my PA Hizzoner blog for an interesting item regarding polling and primary delegate math.

Religious GOPers Turn to Rudy, Too

October 2, 2007

Seen the new Gallup poll?  The one with an emphasis on how religious people feel about various candidates?

Giuliani will never win the nomination, many in the MSM say.  He’s too Federalist on social issues.  The more people learn about Romney, team Mitt says, the more people like him.  Giuliani’s support is a result of name recognition, others say, as soon as Fred Thompson is in all those sheeple in the GOP primary will flock to him.

Well, according to Gallup Mayor Giuliani has the highest favorables amongst churchgoing Catholics.  This is important because that’s a block that helped Reagan to his landslides.  Amongst churchgoing Protestants– shorthand for evangelicals, I guess– Giuliani’s favorables are marginally lower than McCain’s and Thompson’s.  But he’s in their ballpark.  Romney, on the other hand, is beaten by both Obama and Edwards.  Amongst churchgoing protestants that identify has Republicans, Hizzoner is only one point off the lead.

Where the rubber hits the road on this poll is where they ask directly about GOP nomination preferences.  Amongst churchgoing protestants, Giuliani is only a couple points behind Thompson.  Romney is outpolled by Huckabee.  Giuliani dominates, though, amongst all other republicans.

This poll is bad, bad news for Team Romney.

Fred is In, Yawns Ensue; Rudy Wins Another Debate

September 6, 2007

Thompson announced his candidacy on Jay Leno’s program last night, apparently feeling that is a more appropriate place for him to be than an actual debate.  Thompson claimed the Leno show would be harder, anyway, than a GOP debate.  We’ll see.

By most estimatations, Giuliani did great last night at the debate.  He is handicapped now in that his performance in these debates excepting the first one has been so strong that he is judged against himself, rather than the weak compeition.  So while Hizzoner clearly won, pundits seem to think McCain did himself the most good as he most exceeded expectations.  Given how low those expectations have become, I imagine Team Giuliani is pretty happy.

Romney looked plain lame on foreign policy, getting zinged by McCain for saying the surge is “apparently” working.  I imagine team Giuliani was also happy about this, as the dueling press releases behind the scenes seems to suggest the campaign’s respective strategists are beginning to view this as a Giuliani / Romney race.

My only controversial observation thus far?  Giuliani could close this race tomorrow by annoucing Thompson as his veep.  Romney could at least keep it an open question by doing the same.

NH Manchester Union-Leader’s Pro-Rudy Editorial

August 1, 2007

Well, look at this.  As soon as other candidates [ahem, Rudy Giuliani] start dumping resources into IA and NH at even a fraction of the pace of Mitt Romney has been burning bonfires of venture capital cash, the Mittster’s lead is revealed as thin at best.

I thought it was Giuliani who was supposed to have fickle and ill-informed supporters?  MSM pundits stunned again, Bloggers for Rudy grow bored with their predictable failures.

Now, on the heels of those polls the influential Manchester Union Leader writes:

Giuliani wants to use the power of free markets to reduce health-care costs and make insurance more affordable and more widely available.

“America’s health-care system is being dragged down by decades of government-imposed mandates and wasteful, unaccountable bureaucracy,” he said. “To reform, we must empower all Americans by increasing health-care choices and affordability, while bringing accountability to the system.”

Giuliani’s health care proposal has some familiar ideas, such as expanding Health Savings Accounts, reforming medical liability laws and offering a tax credit for health insurance not purchased through an employer. Each of these sound ideas has been pushed by the Bush administration.

It also has some less familiar ones, such as bypassing state coverage mandates by allowing people to purchase basic health insurance through interstate markets.

Giuliani’s plan is innovative and, if implemented, would achieve much of what the Democrats want, but for less money and with greater individual freedom.

It should be noted that he is not the only Republican candidate touting market-based health-care reform. But he is doing so more aggressively, directly challenging the Democrats on the issue. (Mitt Romney has done this to a lesser extent.)

Other Republican candidates need to follow Giuliani’s lead and play up their market-based approach to health-care reform. Socialized medicine is a terrible idea. But it will be the only idea if its opponents don’t challenge it more aggressively.

Pundits keep saying things like “All Rudy has is 9/11”, “Giuliani’s appeal is largely based on name-recognition and will dissipate”, and “National polls are meaningless, what is really significant is that Romney leads in IA and NH, and McCain in SC.”

They’re like some of the marketing people I work with.  They keep making judgements with their guts and don’t seek out– or ignore– outright data.  All the data available to us is that Americans love Giuliani, and his positions most closely match those of the voters.  I guess mundane things like facts are irrelevant to them, and I should craft a macro that writes out “MSM wrong again.”

Rudy IA & NH Radio

July 24, 2007

Team Giuliani has started running radio ads in New Hampshire and Iowa, so we will get to see if Mitt Romney’s strong showing in polls in those states is merely a reflection of the fact that he spends infinitely more money there on media than any other candidate.

Some are saying something along the lines of this:  “Aha!  Now that McCain is looking like he’s going to tank Giuliani realizes he can’t write off those states anymore since he’ll have one less candidate to fracture the electorate.”

That may be true.  The conventional wisdom has always been wrong when it comes to Hizzoner’s campaign, though.  So I wonder if the situation is more like this:  Team Giuliani had confirmed over the last week that he is very strong in SC and FL, as I note in the post below.  They are very confident with those leads, as in FL he is up by double digits, and in SC McCain is his closest competition, with Romney down at 4%.  So while they would have been happy to concede IA and NH, now they feel they have a little room to manuver.  So they will invest some time and money IA and NH, forcing other candidates to crop-dust shekels there with desperate abandon, hence depleting their resources for later.

This could, in fact, be exactly what they plan for a for the general election:  Giuliani is the only GOP candidate that can force a Democrat candidate to spend any significant money in large, expensive states like CA and NY.  While NH and IA are not large, they are expensive in a primary.  Those folks practically expect every candidate to knock on their door and sit down for dinner.  If the rest of the GOP has to spend time working diners in IA and doing four hour interviews with the Manchester Union Leader to just protect narrow advantages there, they will find themselves 100 delegates behind Giuliani without much money to spend on super-duper media windfall Tuesday.

The Polls That Really Matter: FL & SC

July 23, 2007

Now that I have become a more earnest content-generator on the upcoming presidential race, I feel in my bones what I only before knew in my head: Polls exist to keep the commentariat occupied.

That caveat aside, we’ve recently had two polls in states with early primaries:  SC and FL.  Both of these states have primaries before super-duper local television affiliate windfall Tuesday.  Combined, there are also twice as many delegates at stake in these states than in IA and NH.

A recent Quinnipiac poll showed Giuliani up by a LOT in Florida.  A recent CNN poll gave Hizzoner a solid lead in SC.  Funnily, his closest competition there is McCain, who we all expect to spectacularly auger into the ground.  If one is curious where Romney stands in states where his spending is commensurate with the competition, it is instructive to note he’s down in Ron Paul territory in SC at 4 points.

So I guess I have a new hobby horse: Why is Romney first tier?  Heck, people.  Give me 12 million dollars with opponents still biding their time and I could get Stan Jones— the Montana Libertarian who turned himself blue by eating colloidal silver– to poll well in IA and NH.