Archive for the ‘Polls’ Category

SC Sets Table for Giuliani in FL

January 21, 2008

OK.  I guess it was too much to hope for a Thompson win in SC.  A McCain win is almost as good, though.

The GOP electorate has been experimenting with their non-McCain options since voting has started.  Everyone has been auditioned except our man.  Hizzoner remains only two points off the lead in the most recent Quinnipiac poll in FL, though, and as the results from everything post-Florida begin to sink in, the Huckster’s numbers should surely decline.

Thus the Mayor has a very real chance of winning FL, which was the plan all along.  Of course, I don’t think anyone imagined the average GOP voter would be so eager to give McCain a pass on the summer immigration flap.  Apparently it is so.  Remember those halcyon days when we all wrote off his campaign?  Would that it were so.

Again, the “surge” strategy has been set up about as well as it could have been.  For Team Rudy, I mean, not Iraq.  A week from tomorrow, we’ll know for sure if DuHaime will be writing a book, or looking for a job running a town supervisor campaign in Long Island.

I am biased, of course, but I still expect all of us to wake up on Feb. 5 with Mayor Giuliani in possession of a delegate lead, or at least very near the lead.  Then things are going to get interesting…


How Much Do Social Issues Matter…to Evangelicals

November 9, 2007

The response to Pat Robertson’s endorsement has run, on the right, from bemused– “Why would he?”– to sour grapes– “Well, Pat Robertson doesn’t matter any more.  Didn’t he say Katrina hit New Orleans because of gay people?”

There have been a few wise voices– Jonah Goldburg is one– who have pointed to, you know, data.  These folks suggest maybe the most important social issue to Evangelicals is the War on Terror.

As you may suspect, I think Mr. Goldburg is on to something.  Importantly, this opinion is actually backed by some data.  The first, most obvious data point is that Evangelicals are not lining up behind a single candidate.  If they were so monolithic and easy to lead one would believe they would figure out who lines up best with them, and all support that person.

Now here’s a second data point, a CBS poll from a couple weeks ago.  [HT Crunchy Con]  There’s a bunch of interesting stuff in that poll, so please do check it out.  For our purposes here, though, check out the list of issues Evangelicals want to see their political leaders talk about:

Health care 23%

War in Iraq 20%

Immigration 8%

Economy/jobs 7%

What don’t you see in that list?  Also interestingly, social issues are still considered extremely important to Evangelicals, despite the fact that it does not rank highly on the above list.  I’m not too sure how to parse that.

Finally, I thought it rather illuminating that about 40% of Evangelicals think abortion should only be allowed to save the life of the mother or not at all.  That’s still more than twice the rate in the general population, but it does pretty well put to rest the canard of thinking that Evangelicals have cookie-cutter views and are easily led, eh?

Remember, I’m not making any value judgements here.  Personally, this blogger can probably be described as “tentatively pro-life”.  I’m talking politics.

New Gallup Pollage: Rudy Motivates the Most Republicans

October 16, 2007

There’s a new Gallup poll out.  Check it here.

Rudy is the favored GOP candidate nationally.  By a lot.  Of course, we’re used to that.  But let me tell you what is more interesting about this particular poll

Recently there has been some hyperventilating about the possibility of social conservatives potentially deserting the GOP for a third party if they are unhappy with the nominee.  Or, perhaps more likely, deciding to stay home.

First, please note the story line has now changed from “Rudy can’t win the GOP nomination because of social issues” to a presumption that it is entirely likely a candidate that is not Gary Bauer’s first choice will secure the nomination.

Well, as I always advise, let’s look at actual data.  Shall we?

In that Gallup poll 411 voters that are registered republicans or independents than lean towards the GOP were asked about how they would respond to particular hypothetical nominees in a general election.

Vote for enthusiastic-ally Vote for, mainly against the Democrat Vote for the Democrat Stay home, not vote No opinion
Rudy Giuliani 51 27 6 9 8
John McCain 38 37 5 10 10
Fred Thompson 37 30 5 11 17
Mitt Romney 25 38 9 13 17

So can we now please start putting to rest the canard that the GOP grassroots won’t support Giuliani in a general election?  Hizzoner has– by far– the highest “vote for enthusiastically” score, and the lowest (both individually and combined) scores for “stay at home” and “not vote”.

Of course, I imagine none of this is going to persuade Ramesh Ponnuru to throw in with Team Rudy, but I would like to hear what he makes of the data.  Is the GOP not particularly socially conservative?  Is the voting power of that faction in the GOP diffused?  Are there more socially conservative voters supporting Mayor Giuliani than we imagine?  I ask about Mr. Ponnuru specifically, as he is the most eloquent and polite spokesman for the social right I know.


Mr. Ponnuru actually did respond to my questions above here not long after this post, although he was responding to someone else’s e-mail.

PA, OH, and FL Polling

October 11, 2007

Rudy and Hill rule for the nod.  Rudy’s general election numbers still best amongst GOP candidates, although they are slipping a little.  Hizzoner’s support amongst Evangelicals still strong, so we should probably stop saying “surprisingly” strong.

More in depth at PA for Hizzoner.

Most Recent IA Polling

October 8, 2007

Varied and sundry recent IA polling seems to indicate Fred Thompson has moved to 2nd place.  Here’s one recent one, which seems to understate Giuliani’s performance compared to others I’ve seen.

The real story, though, has nothing to do with Rudy’s numbers.  Mitt is banking on IA.  In fact, he has spent so much money there attempting to ensure a victory that he’s had to become his own campaign’s bank to the tune of almost 10 million dollars so far.

Giuliani, on the other hand, is husbanding his resources in a fiscally responsible way.

Now Fred Thompson ambles in and suddenly starts popping up in 2nd place in IA without seriously eroding Giuliani’s respectable if moderate standing.

If Mitt Romney has to spend even more money just to fend off Thompson, he may be well and truly screwed.

Religious GOPers Turn to Rudy, Too

October 2, 2007

Seen the new Gallup poll?  The one with an emphasis on how religious people feel about various candidates?

Giuliani will never win the nomination, many in the MSM say.  He’s too Federalist on social issues.  The more people learn about Romney, team Mitt says, the more people like him.  Giuliani’s support is a result of name recognition, others say, as soon as Fred Thompson is in all those sheeple in the GOP primary will flock to him.

Well, according to Gallup Mayor Giuliani has the highest favorables amongst churchgoing Catholics.  This is important because that’s a block that helped Reagan to his landslides.  Amongst churchgoing Protestants– shorthand for evangelicals, I guess– Giuliani’s favorables are marginally lower than McCain’s and Thompson’s.  But he’s in their ballpark.  Romney, on the other hand, is beaten by both Obama and Edwards.  Amongst churchgoing protestants that identify has Republicans, Hizzoner is only one point off the lead.

Where the rubber hits the road on this poll is where they ask directly about GOP nomination preferences.  Amongst churchgoing protestants, Giuliani is only a couple points behind Thompson.  Romney is outpolled by Huckabee.  Giuliani dominates, though, amongst all other republicans.

This poll is bad, bad news for Team Romney.

Re: New Hampshire Turns to Rudy

September 27, 2007

You beat me to it, Ohio.  Here I was reading some blogs before calling Australia for work, and figured I’d get the jump on all of you.

Of course, this is entirely expected.  Rudy actually started investing in the Granite State’s primary a month or so ago, and now Mitt only has outspent team Giuliani by a factor of 10 rather than 100.

May I also gleefully point out that NH is awfully close to the Commonwealth Romney governed?  Mitt’s campaign has always said “The more people learn about Romney, the more they like him.”  Well, that certainly doesn’t appear to be the case in NH.

But at Least Mitt Won the Iowa Straw Poll!

August 13, 2007

On the upside for the Mittster, at least he managed to win the meaningless Iowa straw poll this weekend by spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to barely edge out Mike Huckabee.

Well done, team Romney.  Keep it up.  Maybe as soon as you start spending a similar amount of money per vote nationally you can break into double digits in a Gallup poll.

Quinnipiac Swing State Poll

August 9, 2007

Sorry for the infrequency of posts.  Busy life + nothing shocking = less posting.

There’s some trenchant commentary here from a brilliant blogger about the recent Quinnipiac swing state poll covering PA, FL, and OH.  No surprises:  Rudy leads all for the GOP nod and is the only GOP candidate who can compete in the general election.

I guess there was some pseudo-shocking news in the Vanity Fair hit piece on Mrs. Giuliani.  Whatever.  If that’s the best the NYC media can do, despite the fact they detest Giuliani for making their city better through tactics they insisted would never work, then the election may be easier than we thought.

Of course, we all know there’s more of that coming.  I will not hold my breath, though, on the similar piece on Bill Clinton’s philandry and corruption, Mrs. Obama’s sanctimony, or Mrs. Edwards’ naked ambition.

NH Manchester Union-Leader’s Pro-Rudy Editorial

August 1, 2007

Well, look at this.  As soon as other candidates [ahem, Rudy Giuliani] start dumping resources into IA and NH at even a fraction of the pace of Mitt Romney has been burning bonfires of venture capital cash, the Mittster’s lead is revealed as thin at best.

I thought it was Giuliani who was supposed to have fickle and ill-informed supporters?  MSM pundits stunned again, Bloggers for Rudy grow bored with their predictable failures.

Now, on the heels of those polls the influential Manchester Union Leader writes:

Giuliani wants to use the power of free markets to reduce health-care costs and make insurance more affordable and more widely available.

“America’s health-care system is being dragged down by decades of government-imposed mandates and wasteful, unaccountable bureaucracy,” he said. “To reform, we must empower all Americans by increasing health-care choices and affordability, while bringing accountability to the system.”

Giuliani’s health care proposal has some familiar ideas, such as expanding Health Savings Accounts, reforming medical liability laws and offering a tax credit for health insurance not purchased through an employer. Each of these sound ideas has been pushed by the Bush administration.

It also has some less familiar ones, such as bypassing state coverage mandates by allowing people to purchase basic health insurance through interstate markets.

Giuliani’s plan is innovative and, if implemented, would achieve much of what the Democrats want, but for less money and with greater individual freedom.

It should be noted that he is not the only Republican candidate touting market-based health-care reform. But he is doing so more aggressively, directly challenging the Democrats on the issue. (Mitt Romney has done this to a lesser extent.)

Other Republican candidates need to follow Giuliani’s lead and play up their market-based approach to health-care reform. Socialized medicine is a terrible idea. But it will be the only idea if its opponents don’t challenge it more aggressively.

Pundits keep saying things like “All Rudy has is 9/11”, “Giuliani’s appeal is largely based on name-recognition and will dissipate”, and “National polls are meaningless, what is really significant is that Romney leads in IA and NH, and McCain in SC.”

They’re like some of the marketing people I work with.  They keep making judgements with their guts and don’t seek out– or ignore– outright data.  All the data available to us is that Americans love Giuliani, and his positions most closely match those of the voters.  I guess mundane things like facts are irrelevant to them, and I should craft a macro that writes out “MSM wrong again.”