Archive for the ‘Primary States’ Category

SC Sets Table for Giuliani in FL

January 21, 2008

OK.  I guess it was too much to hope for a Thompson win in SC.  A McCain win is almost as good, though.

The GOP electorate has been experimenting with their non-McCain options since voting has started.  Everyone has been auditioned except our man.  Hizzoner remains only two points off the lead in the most recent Quinnipiac poll in FL, though, and as the results from everything post-Florida begin to sink in, the Huckster’s numbers should surely decline.

Thus the Mayor has a very real chance of winning FL, which was the plan all along.  Of course, I don’t think anyone imagined the average GOP voter would be so eager to give McCain a pass on the summer immigration flap.  Apparently it is so.  Remember those halcyon days when we all wrote off his campaign?  Would that it were so.

Again, the “surge” strategy has been set up about as well as it could have been.  For Team Rudy, I mean, not Iraq.  A week from tomorrow, we’ll know for sure if DuHaime will be writing a book, or looking for a job running a town supervisor campaign in Long Island.

I am biased, of course, but I still expect all of us to wake up on Feb. 5 with Mayor Giuliani in possession of a delegate lead, or at least very near the lead.  Then things are going to get interesting…

Rudy Ascendant: Don’t Take My Word For It

January 10, 2008

Take the word of Patrick Basham from the Cato Institute in thisNRO piece, or thisCNBC video. [can’t find an embed code. sorry]  To my knowledge, he has not been a Giuliani water-bearer like yours truely.

One observation he makes in the NRO article that I did not in the post below:  All the ads in early primary states currently run by McCain, Romney, and Huckabee– many of them negative– cost money.  That’s an obvious problem.  What I had not thought about is how they’ve also allowed Hizzoner to appear less irascible and divisive.

That was supposed to be one of his weaknesses, remember?  That he was a real SOB, and while people like me may view that as a feature many people think it’s a bug.  But for close to a month, now, it’s all the other candidates that have been acting like political streetfighters.  Mayor Giuliani, on the other hand, has stood by appearing sober and above the fray.

Dare I say “Presidential”?

Things Breaking Rudy’s Way. Seriously.

January 9, 2008

It will only be mentioned in passing, but it looks like NH broke the way Team Rudy would want.  Just like IA.

Hizzoner probably would have liked McCain to win by more, but McCain appears to have not only won the primary, but also appears to have won among GOP voters only.  Romney was hoping to take solace in crowing about winning the GOP vote, only losing to McCain because independents opted for the aged veteran.

The fact that Clinton pulled out an unexpected victory will also distract the media, making the McCain victory apt to quickly become old news.

Huck’s IA bounce evaporated, and Thompson barely registered at all.

Finally, our man did avoid the ignominy of losing to Ron Paul.

This forces Romney and McCain to both vigorously contest MI, and Huck and Fred both into an all-in pot in SC.

So all other candidates will be otherwise disposed until FL, spending money their campaigns don’t have, while Team Rudy continues to accrue interest on the resources devoted to what they hope will be a Tsunami Tuesday blitz following a FL win.

That was always the plan.  Bit of a nail-biter, sure.  But if the national strategy is viable– which I always thought was the case– then the dominoes are setting up appropriately.

Perspective? We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Perspective!

January 4, 2008

Last night’s results, actually, were perfect for the Giuliani campaign given they elected to forgoe spending seven million dollars in an attempt to kiss up to every Iowan with a pulse.

Romney was dealt a huge defeat.  By his own campaign’s admission IA and/or NH were hugely important to them.  They spent the ethanol farm on IA, and lost.  And NH isn’t looking good.  But that man is stuffed to the gills with venture capital, so he’ll still fight on to Super Duper Tuesday.

Thompson and McCain did OK, encouraging them to stay in the race.

Ron Paul didn’t surprise anyone with a particularly impressive showing.

So it looks like last night Team Rudy got the result they needed.  There will not be any one candidate piling up victories and delegates before Florida, and Florida is where the Giuliani team has planted their flag.

So Team Rudy will get to FL, where our man still leads in all polls.  The only candidate coming on strong is the Huck.  If the Huckster can win Florida, we’re all doomed.

Rudy wins Florida, though, and then piles up some delegates from NY, NJ, DE, CA and others on Tsunami Tuesday, then the national strategy will be vindicated.  And his campaign team can then make some money on a book.

The important thing to note, though, is last night’s results were the first empirical confirmation of the national stragegy’s political viability.

Jeb Bush To Work for Hizzoner

October 18, 2007

Well, Jeb Bush, Jr., that is.  He’s the youngest son of the former FL governor, and will be heading up Giuliani’s Young Republicans organization in the Sunshine State.

I don’t suppose this amounts to all that much.  It does register somewhat, though, when put in the context of the hullabaloo that ensued when it turned out out Mayor Giuliani’s daughter was once seen fraternizing online with some Obama supporters.

You see, if *that* mattered, then this does.  The Bush that most conservatives wish they’d gotten instead of the current one hasn’t endorsed anyone.  But his namesake now has.

PA, OH, and FL Polling

October 11, 2007

Rudy and Hill rule for the nod.  Rudy’s general election numbers still best amongst GOP candidates, although they are slipping a little.  Hizzoner’s support amongst Evangelicals still strong, so we should probably stop saying “surprisingly” strong.

More in depth at PA for Hizzoner.

Most Recent IA Polling

October 8, 2007

Varied and sundry recent IA polling seems to indicate Fred Thompson has moved to 2nd place.  Here’s one recent one, which seems to understate Giuliani’s performance compared to others I’ve seen.

The real story, though, has nothing to do with Rudy’s numbers.  Mitt is banking on IA.  In fact, he has spent so much money there attempting to ensure a victory that he’s had to become his own campaign’s bank to the tune of almost 10 million dollars so far.

Giuliani, on the other hand, is husbanding his resources in a fiscally responsible way.

Now Fred Thompson ambles in and suddenly starts popping up in 2nd place in IA without seriously eroding Giuliani’s respectable if moderate standing.

If Mitt Romney has to spend even more money just to fend off Thompson, he may be well and truly screwed.

Re: New Hampshire Turns to Rudy

September 27, 2007

You beat me to it, Ohio.  Here I was reading some blogs before calling Australia for work, and figured I’d get the jump on all of you.

Of course, this is entirely expected.  Rudy actually started investing in the Granite State’s primary a month or so ago, and now Mitt only has outspent team Giuliani by a factor of 10 rather than 100.

May I also gleefully point out that NH is awfully close to the Commonwealth Romney governed?  Mitt’s campaign has always said “The more people learn about Romney, the more they like him.”  Well, that certainly doesn’t appear to be the case in NH.

But at Least Mitt Won the Iowa Straw Poll!

August 13, 2007

On the upside for the Mittster, at least he managed to win the meaningless Iowa straw poll this weekend by spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to barely edge out Mike Huckabee.

Well done, team Romney.  Keep it up.  Maybe as soon as you start spending a similar amount of money per vote nationally you can break into double digits in a Gallup poll.

Quinnipiac Swing State Poll

August 9, 2007

Sorry for the infrequency of posts.  Busy life + nothing shocking = less posting.

There’s some trenchant commentary here from a brilliant blogger about the recent Quinnipiac swing state poll covering PA, FL, and OH.  No surprises:  Rudy leads all for the GOP nod and is the only GOP candidate who can compete in the general election.

I guess there was some pseudo-shocking news in the Vanity Fair hit piece on Mrs. Giuliani.  Whatever.  If that’s the best the NYC media can do, despite the fact they detest Giuliani for making their city better through tactics they insisted would never work, then the election may be easier than we thought.

Of course, we all know there’s more of that coming.  I will not hold my breath, though, on the similar piece on Bill Clinton’s philandry and corruption, Mrs. Obama’s sanctimony, or Mrs. Edwards’ naked ambition.