Archive for the ‘Romney’ Category

Things Breaking Rudy’s Way. Seriously.

January 9, 2008

It will only be mentioned in passing, but it looks like NH broke the way Team Rudy would want.  Just like IA.

Hizzoner probably would have liked McCain to win by more, but McCain appears to have not only won the primary, but also appears to have won among GOP voters only.  Romney was hoping to take solace in crowing about winning the GOP vote, only losing to McCain because independents opted for the aged veteran.

The fact that Clinton pulled out an unexpected victory will also distract the media, making the McCain victory apt to quickly become old news.

Huck’s IA bounce evaporated, and Thompson barely registered at all.

Finally, our man did avoid the ignominy of losing to Ron Paul.

This forces Romney and McCain to both vigorously contest MI, and Huck and Fred both into an all-in pot in SC.

So all other candidates will be otherwise disposed until FL, spending money their campaigns don’t have, while Team Rudy continues to accrue interest on the resources devoted to what they hope will be a Tsunami Tuesday blitz following a FL win.

That was always the plan.  Bit of a nail-biter, sure.  But if the national strategy is viable– which I always thought was the case– then the dominoes are setting up appropriately.


Perspective? We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Perspective!

January 4, 2008

Last night’s results, actually, were perfect for the Giuliani campaign given they elected to forgoe spending seven million dollars in an attempt to kiss up to every Iowan with a pulse.

Romney was dealt a huge defeat.  By his own campaign’s admission IA and/or NH were hugely important to them.  They spent the ethanol farm on IA, and lost.  And NH isn’t looking good.  But that man is stuffed to the gills with venture capital, so he’ll still fight on to Super Duper Tuesday.

Thompson and McCain did OK, encouraging them to stay in the race.

Ron Paul didn’t surprise anyone with a particularly impressive showing.

So it looks like last night Team Rudy got the result they needed.  There will not be any one candidate piling up victories and delegates before Florida, and Florida is where the Giuliani team has planted their flag.

So Team Rudy will get to FL, where our man still leads in all polls.  The only candidate coming on strong is the Huck.  If the Huckster can win Florida, we’re all doomed.

Rudy wins Florida, though, and then piles up some delegates from NY, NJ, DE, CA and others on Tsunami Tuesday, then the national strategy will be vindicated.  And his campaign team can then make some money on a book.

The important thing to note, though, is last night’s results were the first empirical confirmation of the national stragegy’s political viability.

Religion and the GOP Nomination

December 3, 2007

Sorry about my recent hiatus.  Work takes over one’s time, sometimes, which I imagine is not nearly as large a problem for left-wing political activists.

Upon dipping into the blogosphere for the first time in a week, I learn Mitt will be doing a “Mormon speech” on Thursday.  No doubt he was inspired to do as much by slipping to second place in IA behind Huck, despite outspending him by more than eight to one.

This is dangerous territory for Romney, and could backfire in a huge way.  Again, let me state for the record that I have no problems at all with Mormons.  Still, by drawing potential evangelical fire upon his own position more people may learn things like this which seem a bit weird to mere cultural Christians, which happens to describe a majority of American voters.

Obviously, nobody will mistake Giuliani for a particularly rigorous Catholic.  In fact, it is not unfair ask if– by the strict definition of the Catholic Church– Rudy even still isa Catholic.  So his campaign is in no position to even consider playing dirty pool with the religion question.  It appears, though, that Mitt will openly invite questions concerning religion and politics, and one suspects Huckabee’s campaign manager is licking his chops at the opportunity.

This is great news for Team Rudy.  There’s no bad way for it to break.  Either Mitt’s gambit fails, and his support fractures.  Or it succeeds, and Romney and Huckabee distract themselves by squabbling over the religious right.

Cross-Post: Giuliani and Libertarians

November 13, 2007

Over at my PA for Hizzoner blog a small thread as developed– well, I’m doing most of the writing– as a result of the appearence of my town’s first presidential support sign; a Ron Paul sign.

As a former card-carrying member of the Libertarian party who’s first vote for president was for the man who was, in fact, Ron Paul’s veep on the Libertarian ticket in ’88, I am not unsympathetic to those supporting Paul.  I did express, though, that I believe Giuliani is pretty darned friendly to Libertarians, a statement which one commenter thought needed elaboration.  That elaboration is below:

I understand the question.  You have to look at it from a perspective that respects one of Libertarianism’s fundamental requirements of the State:  That of protecting private property.

Giuliani’s priority as Mayor– the reason he was elected– was to make the City safer and more pleasant.  Read that as “Protect their private property.”

Hence this person’s perception of him as a “gun-grabbing” and “police state” mayor.  I think Giuliani was wrong at the time with his handgun lawsuits, but he thought he had two opposing freedoms he had to prioritize: Civil order and the right to defence.  I am a pretty dogged 2nd Amendment advocate, but even I can appreciate how the priorities of NYC in a crime wave and Idaho are different, and probably require different approaches.  So while aspiring to be President, it is natural for Giuliani to become more sympathetic to gun owners, which he has.

It is enlightening to also understand that the protection of private property is why– as a mayor rather than the President– he was Libertarian-ish on immigration.  He wanted illegals to be comfortable dealing with the local gendarmes so they could report on the bad apples.

Some suggest the Mayor has been doing a lot of flip-flopping.  Without getting into semantical arguments, I think it is important to understand that those issues on which he has drifted rightward merely reflect differently weighted priorities of two different jobs:  That of Mayor of NYC and that of President of the United States.  As he has pointed out, it would have been easier for him to just complete the flip-flop and lie.  A look at the GOP field illustrates at least one candidate who is comfortable doing this.  One thing, though, that appears to be consistent with the Mayor is that at the core he is driven by a respect for the freedoms of law-abiding individuals to pursue their own happiness, and an understanding that it is the State’s role to defend these freedoms.

I do not at all suggest that Giuliani would be at home in the Libertarian party.  I do suggest, though, that he is Libertarian-friendly:  His first priority is to protect your property and civil society in general.  His second priority– as evidenced by his actions in NYC and the associated favorable reviews from the Club for Growth and endorsement by Steve Forbes– is to minimize the vigor with which government dips into your bank account.  After that, he pretty much feels the states should decide on all the culturally divisive social issues.

That, I say, is pretty Libertarian friendly.  Does he buy into Libertarian ideology?  Probably not, as his habits of character can be quirky and pretty hierarchical.  Note his apparent distaste of ferret owners.  But when the time comes in a general election for Ron Paul supporters to pull a lever, I hope those that aren’t using their support for Paul merely as a way to promote isolationism will do the needful and vote for Giuliani rather than staying home or voting for his opponent.

Assuming, of course, Hizzoner can secure the nomination, which is a whole ‘nother article, as Nordlinger says.  I am not entirely sure how Paul’s supporters effect that process.  Not much, I tend to think…

MI Debate Analysis…

October 10, 2007

…is actually something I can’t do.  The wife and I elect to NOT take cable television in our home, which thankfully kept me from watching every second of the Rockies sweep of the Phillies.  The debate is up online right now, but I haven’t watched yet.

So all I can do is relay the assessments of people who have to watch these things, as they get paid to do so.  Consensus seems to be: Thompson didn’t impress, but at least he didn’t commit any major gaffes.  So he kind of cleared a very low bar.  Giuliani remains strong in these debates, but would have been pretty average, if he hadn’t won small a small tiff with Romney over the line-item veto.  McCain continues to improve.

Romney, though, came off badly.  When his pre-installed suite of programming is functioning smoothly, people appreciate his answers as mostly right if transparently calculated.  When that software hits a bug, though, he says something like “We’ll let the lawyers decide” the direction of our foreign policy.

Worst news of the night, though?  I learned that Phil Gramm is Brownback’s economic advisor.  Damn.  I like Phil Gramm.  Thankfully, my admiration for Gramm is something of a minority fetish, and this is unlikely to put him over the top.

Finally, see this post over at my PA Hizzoner blog for an interesting item regarding polling and primary delegate math.

Most Recent IA Polling

October 8, 2007

Varied and sundry recent IA polling seems to indicate Fred Thompson has moved to 2nd place.  Here’s one recent one, which seems to understate Giuliani’s performance compared to others I’ve seen.

The real story, though, has nothing to do with Rudy’s numbers.  Mitt is banking on IA.  In fact, he has spent so much money there attempting to ensure a victory that he’s had to become his own campaign’s bank to the tune of almost 10 million dollars so far.

Giuliani, on the other hand, is husbanding his resources in a fiscally responsible way.

Now Fred Thompson ambles in and suddenly starts popping up in 2nd place in IA without seriously eroding Giuliani’s respectable if moderate standing.

If Mitt Romney has to spend even more money just to fend off Thompson, he may be well and truly screwed.

3Q07 Fundraising Numbers

October 5, 2007

It seems everyone was paying more attention to the fundraising numbers the previous quarter.  It is still gratifying to notice that Hizzoner raised more last quarter than any other GOP candidate.  Assuming, of course, you don’t count the $8.5 million Romney gave to himself.

He just keeps spending and spending, and pretty much has a lead in a single midwestern caucus to show for it.

Alas, you all may have also noticed the Dems continue to out-raise the GOP.  It is distressing, but I won’t get in a twist about it for a bit.  Hillary looks likely to win the Dem nod.  As soon as there is officially a candidate Clinton redux I expect GOP donors to start writing so many checks to the appropriate candidate that they’ll have to start selling stock and working longer hours to accommodate their burning need to defeat her.  They just don’t know who that candidate is, yet.

Religious GOPers Turn to Rudy, Too

October 2, 2007

Seen the new Gallup poll?  The one with an emphasis on how religious people feel about various candidates?

Giuliani will never win the nomination, many in the MSM say.  He’s too Federalist on social issues.  The more people learn about Romney, team Mitt says, the more people like him.  Giuliani’s support is a result of name recognition, others say, as soon as Fred Thompson is in all those sheeple in the GOP primary will flock to him.

Well, according to Gallup Mayor Giuliani has the highest favorables amongst churchgoing Catholics.  This is important because that’s a block that helped Reagan to his landslides.  Amongst churchgoing Protestants– shorthand for evangelicals, I guess– Giuliani’s favorables are marginally lower than McCain’s and Thompson’s.  But he’s in their ballpark.  Romney, on the other hand, is beaten by both Obama and Edwards.  Amongst churchgoing protestants that identify has Republicans, Hizzoner is only one point off the lead.

Where the rubber hits the road on this poll is where they ask directly about GOP nomination preferences.  Amongst churchgoing protestants, Giuliani is only a couple points behind Thompson.  Romney is outpolled by Huckabee.  Giuliani dominates, though, amongst all other republicans.

This poll is bad, bad news for Team Romney.

Re: New Hampshire Turns to Rudy

September 27, 2007

You beat me to it, Ohio.  Here I was reading some blogs before calling Australia for work, and figured I’d get the jump on all of you.

Of course, this is entirely expected.  Rudy actually started investing in the Granite State’s primary a month or so ago, and now Mitt only has outspent team Giuliani by a factor of 10 rather than 100.

May I also gleefully point out that NH is awfully close to the Commonwealth Romney governed?  Mitt’s campaign has always said “The more people learn about Romney, the more they like him.”  Well, that certainly doesn’t appear to be the case in NH.

Romney Vexes Me

September 24, 2007

The other day the Mittster said something along the lines of “a necessary ingredient” for a GOP candidate to beat Ms. Clinton is to be able to “bring all their family together as I have to get on the campaign trail.”

First, the statement is incoherent on its face.  It just doesn’t make any logical sense.

Second, one finds it hard to imagine anyone would find it persuasive.  Either he really thinks that, which paints him as some sort of Stepford automaton.  Or it could mean he thinks GOP voters are unable to discern the statement’s dimwittery, which means he’s about as patronizing as a politician can get.

I favor the latter interpretation.  He has already shown himself to be the dirtiest GOP candidate out there with his ethically challenged slanderous anti-Thompson web site.  He has also already shown himself to be arrogant and patronizing with his transparent defense against accusations that his campaign had something to do with that site.

Seriously, about all this guy has going for him are appearances of rectitude and a nice haircut.  Does he really think that will generate a cloaking device preventing people from seeing how venal he is?