Archive for the ‘Rudy’ Category

SC Sets Table for Giuliani in FL

January 21, 2008

OK.  I guess it was too much to hope for a Thompson win in SC.  A McCain win is almost as good, though.

The GOP electorate has been experimenting with their non-McCain options since voting has started.  Everyone has been auditioned except our man.  Hizzoner remains only two points off the lead in the most recent Quinnipiac poll in FL, though, and as the results from everything post-Florida begin to sink in, the Huckster’s numbers should surely decline.

Thus the Mayor has a very real chance of winning FL, which was the plan all along.  Of course, I don’t think anyone imagined the average GOP voter would be so eager to give McCain a pass on the summer immigration flap.  Apparently it is so.  Remember those halcyon days when we all wrote off his campaign?  Would that it were so.

Again, the “surge” strategy has been set up about as well as it could have been.  For Team Rudy, I mean, not Iraq.  A week from tomorrow, we’ll know for sure if DuHaime will be writing a book, or looking for a job running a town supervisor campaign in Long Island.

I am biased, of course, but I still expect all of us to wake up on Feb. 5 with Mayor Giuliani in possession of a delegate lead, or at least very near the lead.  Then things are going to get interesting…

Rudy Ascendant: Don’t Take My Word For It

January 10, 2008

Take the word of Patrick Basham from the Cato Institute in thisNRO piece, or thisCNBC video. [can’t find an embed code. sorry]  To my knowledge, he has not been a Giuliani water-bearer like yours truely.

One observation he makes in the NRO article that I did not in the post below:  All the ads in early primary states currently run by McCain, Romney, and Huckabee– many of them negative– cost money.  That’s an obvious problem.  What I had not thought about is how they’ve also allowed Hizzoner to appear less irascible and divisive.

That was supposed to be one of his weaknesses, remember?  That he was a real SOB, and while people like me may view that as a feature many people think it’s a bug.  But for close to a month, now, it’s all the other candidates that have been acting like political streetfighters.  Mayor Giuliani, on the other hand, has stood by appearing sober and above the fray.

Dare I say “Presidential”?

Things Breaking Rudy’s Way. Seriously.

January 9, 2008

It will only be mentioned in passing, but it looks like NH broke the way Team Rudy would want.  Just like IA.

Hizzoner probably would have liked McCain to win by more, but McCain appears to have not only won the primary, but also appears to have won among GOP voters only.  Romney was hoping to take solace in crowing about winning the GOP vote, only losing to McCain because independents opted for the aged veteran.

The fact that Clinton pulled out an unexpected victory will also distract the media, making the McCain victory apt to quickly become old news.

Huck’s IA bounce evaporated, and Thompson barely registered at all.

Finally, our man did avoid the ignominy of losing to Ron Paul.

This forces Romney and McCain to both vigorously contest MI, and Huck and Fred both into an all-in pot in SC.

So all other candidates will be otherwise disposed until FL, spending money their campaigns don’t have, while Team Rudy continues to accrue interest on the resources devoted to what they hope will be a Tsunami Tuesday blitz following a FL win.

That was always the plan.  Bit of a nail-biter, sure.  But if the national strategy is viable– which I always thought was the case– then the dominoes are setting up appropriately.

Perspective? We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Perspective!

January 4, 2008

Last night’s results, actually, were perfect for the Giuliani campaign given they elected to forgoe spending seven million dollars in an attempt to kiss up to every Iowan with a pulse.

Romney was dealt a huge defeat.  By his own campaign’s admission IA and/or NH were hugely important to them.  They spent the ethanol farm on IA, and lost.  And NH isn’t looking good.  But that man is stuffed to the gills with venture capital, so he’ll still fight on to Super Duper Tuesday.

Thompson and McCain did OK, encouraging them to stay in the race.

Ron Paul didn’t surprise anyone with a particularly impressive showing.

So it looks like last night Team Rudy got the result they needed.  There will not be any one candidate piling up victories and delegates before Florida, and Florida is where the Giuliani team has planted their flag.

So Team Rudy will get to FL, where our man still leads in all polls.  The only candidate coming on strong is the Huck.  If the Huckster can win Florida, we’re all doomed.

Rudy wins Florida, though, and then piles up some delegates from NY, NJ, DE, CA and others on Tsunami Tuesday, then the national strategy will be vindicated.  And his campaign team can then make some money on a book.

The important thing to note, though, is last night’s results were the first empirical confirmation of the national stragegy’s political viability.

Monty Johnson Hits it Big

January 2, 2008

Anyone else remember Monty Johnson?  He was the neighbor of John Edwards called “slummy” by Mrs. Edwards, which is particularly rich coming from the wife of the man who’s been giving the “two Americas” speech for the last six years.

Monty, by the way, also happened to be a Giuliani supporter.  So at least in this space, what some people may find “slummy” we know is merely American rusticana.

Well, hoist a toast to Monty.  It appears some anonymous buyer has paid him a cool $1.6m for his entire property, no questions asked.  Some speculate that it is the Edwards clan.  Personally, I’m hoping it’s really the initial foray for a Dollywood eastward expansion.

Religion and the GOP Nomination

December 3, 2007

Sorry about my recent hiatus.  Work takes over one’s time, sometimes, which I imagine is not nearly as large a problem for left-wing political activists.

Upon dipping into the blogosphere for the first time in a week, I learn Mitt will be doing a “Mormon speech” on Thursday.  No doubt he was inspired to do as much by slipping to second place in IA behind Huck, despite outspending him by more than eight to one.

This is dangerous territory for Romney, and could backfire in a huge way.  Again, let me state for the record that I have no problems at all with Mormons.  Still, by drawing potential evangelical fire upon his own position more people may learn things like this which seem a bit weird to mere cultural Christians, which happens to describe a majority of American voters.

Obviously, nobody will mistake Giuliani for a particularly rigorous Catholic.  In fact, it is not unfair ask if– by the strict definition of the Catholic Church– Rudy even still isa Catholic.  So his campaign is in no position to even consider playing dirty pool with the religion question.  It appears, though, that Mitt will openly invite questions concerning religion and politics, and one suspects Huckabee’s campaign manager is licking his chops at the opportunity.

This is great news for Team Rudy.  There’s no bad way for it to break.  Either Mitt’s gambit fails, and his support fractures.  Or it succeeds, and Romney and Huckabee distract themselves by squabbling over the religious right.

Cross-Post: Giuliani and Libertarians

November 13, 2007

Over at my PA for Hizzoner blog a small thread as developed– well, I’m doing most of the writing– as a result of the appearence of my town’s first presidential support sign; a Ron Paul sign.

As a former card-carrying member of the Libertarian party who’s first vote for president was for the man who was, in fact, Ron Paul’s veep on the Libertarian ticket in ’88, I am not unsympathetic to those supporting Paul.  I did express, though, that I believe Giuliani is pretty darned friendly to Libertarians, a statement which one commenter thought needed elaboration.  That elaboration is below:

I understand the question.  You have to look at it from a perspective that respects one of Libertarianism’s fundamental requirements of the State:  That of protecting private property.

Giuliani’s priority as Mayor– the reason he was elected– was to make the City safer and more pleasant.  Read that as “Protect their private property.”

Hence this person’s perception of him as a “gun-grabbing” and “police state” mayor.  I think Giuliani was wrong at the time with his handgun lawsuits, but he thought he had two opposing freedoms he had to prioritize: Civil order and the right to defence.  I am a pretty dogged 2nd Amendment advocate, but even I can appreciate how the priorities of NYC in a crime wave and Idaho are different, and probably require different approaches.  So while aspiring to be President, it is natural for Giuliani to become more sympathetic to gun owners, which he has.

It is enlightening to also understand that the protection of private property is why– as a mayor rather than the President– he was Libertarian-ish on immigration.  He wanted illegals to be comfortable dealing with the local gendarmes so they could report on the bad apples.

Some suggest the Mayor has been doing a lot of flip-flopping.  Without getting into semantical arguments, I think it is important to understand that those issues on which he has drifted rightward merely reflect differently weighted priorities of two different jobs:  That of Mayor of NYC and that of President of the United States.  As he has pointed out, it would have been easier for him to just complete the flip-flop and lie.  A look at the GOP field illustrates at least one candidate who is comfortable doing this.  One thing, though, that appears to be consistent with the Mayor is that at the core he is driven by a respect for the freedoms of law-abiding individuals to pursue their own happiness, and an understanding that it is the State’s role to defend these freedoms.

I do not at all suggest that Giuliani would be at home in the Libertarian party.  I do suggest, though, that he is Libertarian-friendly:  His first priority is to protect your property and civil society in general.  His second priority– as evidenced by his actions in NYC and the associated favorable reviews from the Club for Growth and endorsement by Steve Forbes– is to minimize the vigor with which government dips into your bank account.  After that, he pretty much feels the states should decide on all the culturally divisive social issues.

That, I say, is pretty Libertarian friendly.  Does he buy into Libertarian ideology?  Probably not, as his habits of character can be quirky and pretty hierarchical.  Note his apparent distaste of ferret owners.  But when the time comes in a general election for Ron Paul supporters to pull a lever, I hope those that aren’t using their support for Paul merely as a way to promote isolationism will do the needful and vote for Giuliani rather than staying home or voting for his opponent.

Assuming, of course, Hizzoner can secure the nomination, which is a whole ‘nother article, as Nordlinger says.  I am not entirely sure how Paul’s supporters effect that process.  Not much, I tend to think…

How Much Do Social Issues Matter…to Evangelicals

November 9, 2007

The response to Pat Robertson’s endorsement has run, on the right, from bemused– “Why would he?”– to sour grapes– “Well, Pat Robertson doesn’t matter any more.  Didn’t he say Katrina hit New Orleans because of gay people?”

There have been a few wise voices– Jonah Goldburg is one– who have pointed to, you know, data.  These folks suggest maybe the most important social issue to Evangelicals is the War on Terror.

As you may suspect, I think Mr. Goldburg is on to something.  Importantly, this opinion is actually backed by some data.  The first, most obvious data point is that Evangelicals are not lining up behind a single candidate.  If they were so monolithic and easy to lead one would believe they would figure out who lines up best with them, and all support that person.

Now here’s a second data point, a CBS poll from a couple weeks ago.  [HT Crunchy Con]  There’s a bunch of interesting stuff in that poll, so please do check it out.  For our purposes here, though, check out the list of issues Evangelicals want to see their political leaders talk about:

Health care 23%

War in Iraq 20%

Immigration 8%

Economy/jobs 7%

What don’t you see in that list?  Also interestingly, social issues are still considered extremely important to Evangelicals, despite the fact that it does not rank highly on the above list.  I’m not too sure how to parse that.

Finally, I thought it rather illuminating that about 40% of Evangelicals think abortion should only be allowed to save the life of the mother or not at all.  That’s still more than twice the rate in the general population, but it does pretty well put to rest the canard of thinking that Evangelicals have cookie-cutter views and are easily led, eh?

Remember, I’m not making any value judgements here.  Personally, this blogger can probably be described as “tentatively pro-life”.  I’m talking politics.

Brownback to Romney: Bite Me

October 26, 2007

Well, Sam Brownback’s supporters may find the language in this title’s post a little beyond the pale.  But that’s sort of what it seems like.

Hizzoner and Sam have met, and Gov. Brownback left calling Mayor Giuliani an “excellent leader”.  At least one reporter with the Washington Post thought Brownback “[S]eemed on the verge of backing [Giuliani]”.  Link here.

The picture below is also from that piece, and while it was taken in June it does seem delicious in the current context, no?  If I were Team Giuliani I certainly wouldn’t count my chickens before they’re hatched on this one, but even if Sam decided to back the Huck or McCain, it remains a partial victory that the one candidate Sam is apparently not considering for an endorsement is Romney.

Mitt Romney’s brain: “Can’t these darn GOP voters see that I’ve fine-tuned my internal poli-software to mirror the polling of the GOP electorate circa 2005?  I wonder how large a donation I have to make to myself NOW…”

Sam Brownback Considering Giuliani Endorsement

October 25, 2007

Wouldn’t it be something if a huge social conservative with  a large organization in IA who just dropped out of the presidential race decided to support Giuliani for president?

Well, apparently it isn’t out of the question, despite what Brownback’s aides seem to think….